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{
    "pubmed_id": "32198088",
    "title": "Transmission potential and severity of COVID-19 in South Korea.",
    "abstract": "Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) identified on Jan 20, 2020 in South Korea, the number of cases rapidly increased, resulting in 6,284 cases including 42 deaths as of March 6, 2020. To examine the growth rate of the outbreak, we aimed to present the first study to report the reproduction number of COVID-19 in South Korea.\nThe daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea were extracted from publicly available sources. By using the empirical reporting delay distribution and simulating the generalized growth model, we estimated the effective reproduction number based on the discretized probability distribution of the generation interval.\nWe identified four major clusters and estimated the reproduction number at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4-1.6). In addition, the intrinsic growth rate was estimated at 0.6 (95% CI: 0.6, 0.7) and the scaling of growth parameter was estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8), indicating sub-exponential growth dynamics of COVID-19. The crude case fatality rate is higher among males (1.1%) compared to females (0.4%) and increases with older age.\nOur results indicate early sustained transmission of COVID-19 in South Korea and support the implementation of social distancing measures to rapidly control the outbreak.",
    "keywords": [
        "COVID-19",
        "Korea",
        "coronavirus",
        "reproduction number"
    ],
    "journal": "International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases",
    "publication_date": "2020-03-22",
    "authors": [
        {
            "lastname": "Shim",
            "firstname": "Eunha",
            "initials": "E",
            "affiliation": "Department of Mathematics, Soongsil University, 369 Sangdoro, Dongjak-Gu, Seoul, 06978 Republic of Korea. Electronic address: alicia@ssu.ac.kr."
        },
        {
            "lastname": "Tariq",
            "firstname": "Amna",
            "initials": "A",
            "affiliation": "Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA. Electronic address: atariq1@student.gsu.edu."
        },
        {
            "lastname": "Choi",
            "firstname": "Wongyeong",
            "initials": "W",
            "affiliation": "Department of Mathematics, Soongsil University, 369 Sangdoro, Dongjak-Gu, Seoul, 06978 Republic of Korea. Electronic address: chok10004@soongsil.ac.kr."
        },
        {
            "lastname": "Lee",
            "firstname": "Yiseul",
            "initials": "Y",
            "affiliation": "Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA. Electronic address: ylee97@student.gsu.edu."
        },
        {
            "lastname": "Chowell",
            "firstname": "Gerardo",
            "initials": "G",
            "affiliation": "Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA. Electronic address: gchowell@gsu.edu."
        }
    ],
    "methods": null,
    "conclusions": null,
    "results": "We identified four major clusters and estimated the reproduction number at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4-1.6). In addition, the intrinsic growth rate was estimated at 0.6 (95% CI: 0.6, 0.7) and the scaling of growth parameter was estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8), indicating sub-exponential growth dynamics of COVID-19. The crude case fatality rate is higher among males (1.1%) compared to females (0.4%) and increases with older age.",
    "copyrights": "Copyright \u00a9 2020. Published by Elsevier Ltd.",
    "doi": "10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.031",
    "xml": null
}